Historical North Carolina Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Price and Basis Data

The North Carolina State University corn, soybean, and wheat price and basis database contains local price and basis time series data over the period beginning in 2000 until the current year. For each series, average monthly observations are presented constructed from daily observations. For example, the reported average monthly price and basis data for any month of a given year (e.g. January) at a particular location, represents the average of all of the daily observations of price and basis for the particular month at the given location. The daily price data were obtained from a Weekly Grain Summary Federal-State Market New Service (RA_GR115). The futures prices used to calculate basis are the daily settlement prices from the Chicago Board of Trade.

How to Use the Information

These historical data can help to put current price and basis levels into perspective. Access the data by clicking the "reports" tab in the main menu or by clicking this button: Reports

Sellers can use these data to see how current price and basis levels compare to those in previous years and to detect seasonal trends in price and basis levels. Because basis levels tend to be more predictable than general price levels, historical basis data are especially informative. Knowing the historical basis and its typical patterns throughout a marketing year and in different locations can help farmers determine when and where to sell their crops, and, in particular, it can help them to evaluate cash bids.

When current basis is relatively strong, it implies that current local demand is high relative to supply. Likewise, when current basis is weak, it implies local demand is low compared to supply. The terms weak and strong, when used to describe basis levels, are relative terms: a weak basis is one that is below typical historical levels, and a strong basis is one that is above typical historical levels. Historical basis data can serve as a measuring stick in that one only needs to compare the current basis to historical levels to decide if the current basis is stronger or weaker than usual at any time. This comparison is especially useful in evaluating cash bids.

Historical basis can be used to evaluate forward price contract offers. A stronger-than-expected basis in conjunction with an acceptable price level may signal an opportunity to eliminate price and basis risk by agreeing to a forward price contract. Basis can be used to decide whether it is beneficial to hedge. A weaker-than-expected basis, in conjunction with an acceptable price level, may signal an opportunity to eliminate price risk by hedging and retaining only basis risk. Basis can be used to decide whether it is beneficial to store for a deferred sale. Typically, basis is weakest at harvest, but a seller benefits when basis is strong. A basis that improves considerably after harvest, combined with an attractive spread between the nearby (harvest) futures and distant futures may signal an opportunity to benefit from storage.

A historical basis that has behaved predictably can give producers additional confidence when making storage decisions. Additional details about how to utilize historical basis information can be found at the following publication "A Guide to Price-Risk Management in Grain Marketing".

See the data here: Reports

Who might benefit from these historical data

Both sellers (farmers) and buyers (integrators, feedmills, and elevators) can all benefit from the historical data in this database. All parties can benefit from understanding historical price and basis levels as well as seasonal trends to put the current price and basis situation into context. In particular, the charts of the previous four years provide an informative illustration of the current situation compared to the most recent years enabling more informed decision making to occur.

Financial support of this project has been provided through a grant by the Corn Growers Association of North Carolina and by the N.C. Cooperative Extension.